Recession graph – shape – who’s for the ski jump?

Ski-jump in Kuopio by camera-caritatis

 

I’m not alone in musing about the recession, timings and upturn. My musings have taken the form of wondering about the shape of the graph – will it be an L? a W? a Wonky W?

I was discussing this last night with the CTO of Venda, an online e-commerce platform and a guy with podcast business who’s badge I misread as SmallBusinessPoo.

My point is – it depends what day of the week as to what you think the recession is going to do. On a Fridays, I find I’m more wont to think it’ll be a V… which demonstrates the day when there’s more confidence and devil may care. 

It also depends who you talk to. The personal recession graph may be totally different, because one’s own career or business may be counter-cyclical or a beneficiary of the displacement effect of changed spending patterns. So, caravan holidays are doing a hockey stick… small down, big up.

And, start-ups that have no ‘down’ can see just a straight line up… wait for that bell-curve, guys… for today is all about growth, not plateaux.

So, should we care when the telegraph reports:

“Nothing moves down in straight lines,” said SocGen’s perma-bear Albert Edwards. “There will be little bounces. But our view is that investors can afford to be lazy and wait. There is not a cat’s chance in hell that this really is the bottom of the cycle.” (Full article about green shoots of economy – http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4514330/Recession-glimmers-of-hope.html).

You know what. Don’t. A nicely bullish restauranteur told me yesterday… we don’t have any competition but ourselves. We stick to what we know. We work hard. We do our thing, respond to our specific situations. You can look too hard at following others – it all gets bitchy and pathetic. Just do your own thing. Inner confidence and gritty drive. That’s something to salute.

So far as others go… and the change in spending patterns… there was a side-swipe that the 300-cover Oxo Tower Restaurant had 15 diners in at lunchtime on Wednesday. Ouch.

For some people, that graph might just resemble a ski jump. And, ski jumps are for the very brave.

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