Recession-Recovery… what-when? Davos in a blizzard

Taleb, the author of Black Swan, talks about growing up in Lebanon and chatting with local politicians about the latest crisis… the politician admitted he didn’t know what would happen next. This disarming frankness helped convince Taleb that his future lay in studying randomness, rather than extrapolating from a pattern that the future might follow a trend.

Warren Buffett says that, when the tide goes out, you can tell who’s wearing shorts.

Davos. A bunch of world leaders. The world media has it on the January calendar. But, it’s just been embarrassing to be in the spotlight. Gordon Brown is looking not just naked but rather grumpy about it.

David Smith, columnist in the Sunday Times (see blog here), points to Vladimir Putin saying that the banks lost in 12 months more than their combined profits in the previous 25 years. And, the Institute for Fiscal Studies says it will take 20 years to bet the British public finances back to where we were before the crisis.

The next big thing is going to be sorting out the mess we’re in. I’d say that Gordon Brown is a dead duck – there’s no way he can avoid being tarred by the regulatory mismanagement tag that has seen the whole world shot to pieces.


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