The next big thing after trust… timing

We seem to be at the point of maximum fear. We have casualties aplenty. We have finger pointing. We have governments breaking ranks with each other. We have freakish optimism from vultures, which says that things aren’t hurting enough… when it feels like they are hurting like they never hurt before.

We have tremors, then major aftershocks.

And we have Anthony Bolton, President of Fidelity Fund Managers, saying in the FT Money section (things are so bad that people are reading the Money sections – see below!), that he’s not been more optimistic in years. See ‘We’ve seen the bottom of the abyss‘.

We might be riding through mental hell, but there seems to be a sense that we are getting settled with the uncertainty, that there can’t possibly be any more uncertainty, that 2009 is already written off, that the Bank of England, Feds and Governments are in the process of taking extraordinary, bedazzling steps. But, at least, action is underway.

So, it’s right to call the bottom. And, while the whole system seems to be creaking. The statistics of BIG start to look very attractive. Because you can start small, start low, start from the minus-zone. And, any move in the positive direction will register big percentage hikes up.

You start when the tide has gone out, the waves have sucked out all the water… and a sense that there must be some swishing, gushing jet to ride back up the beach of capitalism. So, timing is key to the Next Big Thing.

There are many articles about winners and losers. I’m mentally preparing for pain a-plenty all round, because it only seems fair that the pain is widespread. But, as with other water analogies… Archimedes Principle holds true: displacement. If people aren’t using cars, they are getting their bike repaired. If they aren’t buying Champagne, they will still treat themselves to Cava. Look on the bright side. Turnip sales are up 75% at Tesco!

And, as Bolton points out, there are sectors that are oversold. He points to Media and Marketing Services. To Reed Elsevier. Buy buy buy… into the world of B2B communities…

So… to my earlier point…

In times of massive uncertainty, people devour news. And, Barry Diller has tried to show impeccable timing with the launch of The Daily Beast, headed by editorial doyen (or is that dinosaur?) Tina Brown, who described the internet as Terra Incognita before she was hired to Da Beast. She looks to me to be trying to do ‘The Week’ online before Felix Dennis has got there. (Only, I love The Week because it’s print!!!)

As earlier on Opencast, I say that Barry Diller has spotted that the web is turning into TV channels… and he’s packaging up demographics… so The Daily Beast is staking out an audience space in the Baby Boomer age group (my mum, I think that means… particularly if they have elderly Andrew Neil blogging!). I’m not betting against it, but it all looks a bit pre-RSS and post-Huffington Post if you ask me…

Timing… yes, timing…


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